From a sample size of 160 event fireflies, here are the drop rates for each flower according to their rarity:
Common Event Flowers - 49 (30.63%)
Uncommon Event Flowers - 45 (28.13%)
Rare Event Flowers - 32 (20%)
Epic Event Flowers - 20 (12.5%)
Legendary Event Flowers - 14 (8.75%)
The above data is collected after I completed the event and sold all my existing flowers. This means that I started to collect event fireflies from scratch.
I assume that the numbers reflect the true drop rates of event flowers, but do note that results vary across players. (While I was perfecting my set there was once I actually got 4 Lime Hawkmoth flowers in a row!) This guide is just to help you get a realistic expectation of how active you need to be during a firefly event in order to complete it.
The more Egg-Layers you have, the lesser time and Glowbucks you need to spend on the event. Try to earn an Egg-Layer the next time Runaway releases an event with one!
Happy Starry Fluttering~! ♥
Cheers,
Night
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